SM1 flagged investment property as REVALUE. Here you do it: take stabilised NOI, build a defensible cap rate from first principles, and capitalise to a gross asset value you can defend against the appraiser. This is where the analyst earns the gap.
A cap rate values a stabilised income stream — where NOI lands once vacant space is leased and below-market rents roll up to market. Alstria's passing rent (~€9.9/m²/mo) sits roughly 20% below market, on a ~9.9-year average lease term. As leases expire and re-let, NOI grows from ~€89m toward ~€110m. A single forecast year hides a quarter of the value.
Start from the risk-free swap, add the risk premium a buyer demands to get the unlevered return, then subtract stabilised NOI growth. Where it lands is the rate the market would actually transact at.
Given the build above, which cap rate would you defend to an investment committee?
Capitalising €88.7m of stabilised NOI at your 5.9% gives a gross asset value far below the appraiser's implied book at 5.0%. The slider is the single most powerful assumption in the entire valuation — 90 basis points is roughly an 18% swing in value.